Two weeks are in the books, but we have a longggg way to go!

Every Thursday, our guy Keith Eyster drops some early plays to grab ahead of Sunday’s games.

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KEENAN ALLEN MORE THAN 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS (Play to 49.5) 

The Los Angeles Chargers are off to an incredible start, looking like clear favorites in the AFC West after dominant wins over two division rivals.

This week, they host a third, as the Denver Broncos come to town following a tough loss in Indianapolis, where Daniel Jones shredded their secondary for 316 yards.

Justin Herbert has been outstanding, completing 72.1% of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions.

His favorite targets have been clear through two games, with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quinton Johnston each commanding at least a 23% target share.

Somewhat surprisingly, Allen leads the group at 26.2%, posting at least five catches and 60 yards in both contests. He’s also splitting time in the slot with McConkey, running 49% of his routes from where Denver’s secondary is most vulnerable.

The Chargers have struggled to run the ball (3.4 yards per carry) and now face a defense that ranked 5th in rushing yards allowed last season.

Jim Harbaugh has shown he’ll lean on Herbert when needed, with the Chargers leading the league in pass rate over expected in Week 1 against the Chiefs. Even in a comfortable win over the Raiders, they still finished above average in PROE.

Adding to the upside, McConkey was a surprise addition to the injury report after missing Wednesday’s practice. If he’s limited or sidelined, Allen’s role grows even further.

Given Denver’s defensive tendencies to funnel targets to the middle and clamp down on the run, Allen is well-positioned for another strong outing. At just 43.5 receiving yards, the over looks like excellent value.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS (Play to 74.5) 

The Seattle Seahawks rebounded from a disappointing Week 1 loss to the 49ers with a strong victory over the Steelers in Week 2.

Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has quickly emerged as the centerpiece of their passing attack, as he followed up his brilliant opening-week performance with another strong showing, catching 8 of 10 targets for 104 yards.

That makes two straight games with at least eight receptions and 100 yards, an elite level of production that is paired with rare consistency.

What stands out most is Smith-Njigba’s usage. He leads the entire NFL with a 41% target share and a 51% first-read rate, signaling not only his chemistry with Sam Darnold but also his role as the unquestioned focal point of Seattle’s passing game. 

Week 3 sets up another favorable opportunity as the Seahawks host the Saints. New Orleans has been competitive in each of their losses, which matters given the 7.5-point spread.

If the Saints keep this game close, Seattle should be forced to stay aggressive through the air.

The Saints’ defense also just surrendered 279 passing yards to San Francisco backup quarterback Mac Jones, highlighting vulnerabilities that Darnold and Smith-Njigba can exploit.

Another factor is the injury status of running back Zach Charbonnet. Seattle’s depth behind Kenneth Walker is thin, and if Charbonnet sits, the Seahawks may have no choice but to lean even more on the pass.

The Seahawks have been conservative with Walker’s workload to begin the season, and it is unlikely they will push him for a massive workload even if they lead throughout the game. 

With Smith-Njigba’s volume, efficiency, and role, the line of 68.5 receiving yards looks far too modest. He is a strong bet to clear it once again.

^{Looking for Thursday’s Bills vs. Dolphins picks?}

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