Every Thursday, our guy Keith Eyster drops some early plays to grab ahead of Sunday’s games.

It was a CLEAN SWEEP for Eys last week!

His early picks (sent directly to your inbox) went a perfect 2-0. Let’s run it back!

These prop markets move so quickly, and you can find some serious closing line value.

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CALEB WILLIAMS MORE THAN 20.5 RUSHING YARDS (play to 26.5) 

Caleb Williams and the Bears finally broke through in Week 3, cruising to a 31-14 victory over the Cowboys.

Williams delivered one of his best performances as a pro, throwing for 298 yards and four touchdowns while showcasing his growing chemistry with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden on long scoring strikes.

With so much success through the air, Williams ran for just 12 yards, but his rushing upside is still very much intact.

In his first two games this season, the quarterback totaled 85 rushing yards. In his career, Williams has topped 20 yards on the ground in 12 of his 20 starts while averaging 29.3 yards per game.

This week, the Bears face the Raiders in a matchup with a 47.5-point total and just a 1.5-point spread, suggesting a competitive game script. The Raiders’ pass rush is far more disruptive than that of the Cowboys, which should force Williams to escape the pocket and create with his legs.

That aligns well with a defense that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, including 40 to Marcus Mariota and 31 to Justin Herbert in the past two weeks.

Given the matchup and projected game flow, Williams looks primed to clear 20.5 rushing yards for the third time in four games this season.

JAHMYR GIBBS MORE THAN 25.5 RECEIVING YARDS (play to 29.5) 

The Lions showed in Week 3 that losing both of last year’s coordinators to head coaching jobs hasn’t slowed their Super Bowl aspirations.

They marched into Baltimore and knocked off the Ravens 38-30, a statement win that keeps them firmly among the NFC’s elite. Now they return home to face the Cleveland Browns, who are riding high after a surprising upset of the Packers.

Cleveland’s defense has been the story early on, especially against the run. They limited Josh Jacobs to just 30 yards last week and are giving up a league-low 42.7 rushing yards per game, with opponents averaging only 2.2 yards per carry through three contests.

That presents an interesting spot for Jahmyr Gibbs. His role continues to grow, with his snap share climbing from 56% last season to 64% so far this year.

More time on the field has translated into more passing-game usage, as his target share has nearly doubled from 11.1% in 2024 to 20% so far in 2025.

While the Lions enter as 10-point favorites, even a positive game script may force them to lean on Gibbs in the short-passing game since pounding the rock against this Browns front will be nearly impossible.

And if Cleveland pulls another upset and plays from ahead, Gibbs’s receiving involvement should only increase in catch-up mode.

Either way, Gibbs is well-positioned to clear 25.5 receiving yards in Week 4.

^{Looking for Thursday’s Cardinals vs. Seahawks picks?}

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