🎯 Props.com Top Props: Today's Playbook (11/25)

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• 🚨 Quentin Johnston Alert: Big-play potential tonight! With a 68.6% route participation rate and a plus matchup against the Ravens (league-high 16 WR touchdowns allowed), Johnston’s red-zone presence makes him a strong anytime TD scorer pick.

• 🔥 Zay Flowers Flash: Baltimore’s top weapon is set for success against a pass-funnel Chargers defense that’s given up 11 WR touchdowns this year. Flowers’ 29.1% first-read rate and versatility make him a high-value play.

🏈 NFL Top Props

Here are our latest articles, summarized for quick picks. Click to read more.

Best Player Props

• Quentin Johnston’s Prime Spot

  • Fantasy Points – Higher Than 9.25

    • Johnston’s growing role in the Chargers’ offense is undeniable. With a 90% route participation rate in recent games and leading the team in touchdowns, he’s primed for another strong outing. The Ravens’ league-worst pass defense only strengthens the case for Johnston exceeding 9.25 fantasy points.

• Lamar Jackson's Limited Opportunities

  • Completions – Lower Than 20.5

    • While Jackson’s efficiency as a passer has been elite this season, the Chargers’ stout pass defense (fifth in EPA) and the Ravens’ run-heavy approach make this a challenging matchup for a high volume of completions. Betting on fewer than 20.5 completions aligns with recent trends and game dynamics.

Anytime Touchdown

Quentin Johnston to SCORE a Touchdown

• With six touchdowns this season and significant end-zone utilization, Johnston has the matchup advantage against a Ravens defense tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to WRs this year. His deep-threat ability combined with a solid red-zone role makes him a top scoring candidate.

📊 Prop Data Shop

Since Week 6, Ladd McConkey leads the Chargers in multiple metrics: route participation (79.9%), air-yard share (28.0%), target share (20.4%), and receiving yards per game (74.2). The Chargers have a 56.1% first-half pass rate this season, increasing to 57.0% since Week 8, showcasing a pass-heavy game plan. The Ravens’ defense has faced the highest situation-neutral pass rate in the NFL since Week 8 (65%), making them a significant pass-funnel defense. McConkey is tied for the team lead in end zone targets (four), with a history of converting these opportunities, including one touchdown since Week 6.

• Analysis: Ladd McConkey is poised for a big night in a shootout scenario against Baltimore. His growing role in the Chargers’ offense and the Ravens' pass-funnel tendencies create an optimal setup. McConkey's end-zone presence further strengthens his odds of being the game’s first touchdown scorer, making him a high-upside choice.

🏀 NBA Top Props

Here are our latest articles, summarized for quick picks. Click to read more.

First Basket Predictions

LaMelo Ball First Basket Scorer (+450)

• Why It’s Hot: Ball is scorching right now, averaging 30+ points per game with a league-high 40.4% usage rate over his last eight games.

• Matchup Edge: The Magic have only scored first in three of their last 10 games, offering Ball prime opportunities early.

• Consistency: Already nailed three first baskets this season, with a shot volume unmatched among today’s slate.

Best Player Props

James Harden MORE Than 23.5 Points

• Harden is averaging 20.6 PPG this season but is due for positive shooting regression.

• He knocked down 12/12 free throws in his last game, finishing with 23 points in only 27 minutes.

• With Norman Powell sidelined (increased usage rate for Harden), expect him to shoulder a larger scoring burden against a weakened Celtics defense ranked 10th in defensive efficiency.

• A favorable matchup as the Clippers continue their East Coast swing.

OG Anunoby LOWER Than 18.5 Points

• The Nuggets, playing at altitude, are a tough defensive matchup, and the Knicks have the third-slowest pace in the league.

• Anunoby’s season average of 17.8 PPG includes inflated performances against weaker teams.

• Against top-tier opponents like the Celtics, Cavs, Suns, and Bucks, he’s been consistently under 18.5 points, including just 4 points on opening night against Boston.

• Look for the Nuggets’ defensive prowess to keep his scoring in check.

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