🎯 Props.com Top Props: Today's Playbook (11/11)

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Props Up Top

No nonsense props. Boom!

• 🚨 Brandon Ingram Alert: Brandon Ingram is set for a big night at home against the Nets, with increased usage due to key injuries in New Orleans. He’s averaging 34 combined Pts+Rebs+Asts in his last five games. Look for him to top 35.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts tonight.

• 🔥 Kyren Williams Alert: A great pick for tonight's first touchdown scorer! Williams is a workhorse with 83.9% of LA’s rush attempts and seven touchdowns in eight games. The Dolphins' defense has surrendered 10 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns to running backs, giving Williams ample opportunity to strike early.

Prop Quiz

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De’Von Achane – Over or Under 0.5 Rush + Receiving Touchdowns?

De’Von Achane has proven to be a scoring machine when paired with Tua Tagovailoa, finding the end zone in every game they’ve played together this season. Miami leans on their ground game near the goal line, and Achane’s share of red-zone carries solidifies his role as a touchdown threat. The Rams’ defense has been vulnerable to running backs in scoring situations, giving Achane a promising setup for Monday night.

Will he hit this line? Reply and let us know!

🏈 NFL Top Props

Here are our latest articles, summarized for quick picks. Click to read more.

Best Player Props

• Raheem Mostert OVER 8.5 Rushing Attempts

  • Since Week 5, Mostert has handled 38% of Miami’s rushing attempts and has recorded at least nine carries in all four games. Despite a dip in snap percentage last week, his workload has remained steady, outpacing De’Von Achane in attempts during this period. Facing a Rams defense in a projected close game, Mostert is set to remain a key component of Miami’s ground attack.

• Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

  • With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back, Stafford has regained form, throwing multiple touchdowns in consecutive games. The Dolphins' 24th-ranked pass defense EPA has allowed notable performances recently, including three touchdowns from Josh Allen last week. With a fully healthy offense, Stafford is well-positioned to capitalize on Miami’s secondary.

Anytime Touchdown

Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (Higher Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving TDs)

• Kupp has reclaimed his role as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target, boasting a 31.8% target share and scoring in two of his four healthy games this season. With Sean McVay dialing up a 59.3% pass rate inside the 10-yard line in games where Kupp and Nacua have been active, Kupp remains a top red-zone option. Miami has yielded five receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season, making Kupp a strong bet to find the end zone.

🏀 NBA Top Props

Here are our latest articles, summarized for quick picks. Click to read more.

First Basket Predictions

Darius Garland First Basket Scorer (+600)

• Why it’s a value:

  • The Cavaliers have dominated tip-offs, winning 8 of their last 10.

  • Garland has scored the Cavs’ first bucket in five of their last 10 games, with three being the game’s very first basket.

  • His usage rate is 26.2%, second on the team, yet his odds lag behind Donovan Mitchell (+400).

  • Facing the Bulls, a team struggling with tip-off mismatches, this is a strong play.

Terance Mann First Basket Scorer (+1500)

• Why it’s a value:

  • The Clippers face the Thunder, who lose their edge in tip-offs with Chet Holmgren sidelined.

  • Mann has already delivered two first baskets this season and opened scoring for the Clippers in three games.

  • At +1500, Mann is undervalued compared to his recent performance and positioning.

Best Player Props

Stephon Castle LOWER Than 12.5 Points

• Castle recently had a career-best 23-point game, playing 34.6 minutes, but this performance is an outlier.

• Shooting accuracy has been inconsistent: 34.3% FG and 12.5% 3P before the breakout game.

• With Devin Vassell back in the lineup, Castle’s scoring opportunities may diminish. He had 11 or fewer points in eight of his first nine games.

• Value Play: Expect regression. The matchup leans heavily toward the UNDER

Jalen Wilson LOWER Than 6.5 Points

• Despite averaging 21.6 minutes and 7.9 points per game, Wilson’s minutes are trending downward.

• Played just 10 minutes in his last outing, scoring only 2 points.

• With Shake Milton back, Wilson projects for around 12 minutes. In games under 20 minutes, he’s scored 2, 2, and 0 points.

• Value Play: Limited time on the floor makes this UNDER attractive.

🔥 Stop, Drop, and Bankroll

Want to use your FanDuel/DraftKings profit-boost on a parlay? Bet our 💥 Parlay of the Day

• Raheem Mostert OVER 8.5 Rushing Attempts

  • Mostert has hit 9+ carries in all four games since Week 5, holding a consistent 33% rushing share. The Dolphins face the Rams in a tight matchup, giving Mostert ample opportunities to carry the rock.

• Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

  • Stafford is in form, throwing for 2+ touchdowns in back-to-back games. With a healthy receiving corps, he faces a Dolphins defense ranked 24th in pass defense EPA, primed for another strong showing.

• De'Von Achane OVER 102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

  • Achane thrives in Miami’s explosive offense, averaging over 130 yards per game with Tua Tagovailoa under center. The Rams struggle against backs who can contribute through the air, giving Achane a perfect setup.

• Jaylen Waddle First Touchdown Scorer

  • Waddle found the end zone last week and may benefit from Tyreek Hill’s potential limitations. The Rams have allowed the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers, making this high-payout leg worth a shot.

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