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⚾ Best MLB Prop Bets Today – April 16

Mitchell Parker at Pittsburgh Pirates
The breakout is real. Parker’s off to a hot 2025 start, flashing a sub-2.00 ERA and sharp command. He now draws a Pirates lineup that’s been brutal vs. lefties—ranking bottom-5 in average, OPS, and wOBA while striking out nearly 30% of the time in the split.

Prop: Mitchell Parker Higher Than 4.5 Strikeouts – Pittsburgh’s contact issues vs. southpaws give the high-upside lefty a great shot to cash this K prop.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
Tyler Soderstrom is on fire. He crushed two bombs with 6 RBI in Tuesday’s blowout win, and he’s now hitting .328 with a 1.137 OPS on the season. He faces Jonathan Cannon, who’s been getting rocked by lefties and giving up barrels at a scary clip.

Prop: Tyler Soderstrom Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI – Red-hot bat in a prime matchup vs. a righty who's struggling to miss barrels.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
A pitcher’s duel is brewing in Philly. Robbie Ray has been sharp early, holding hitters to a .100 average in first innings while flashing vintage stuff. Across from him, Aaron Nola is better than his surface numbers suggest—he’s also held hitters to a .100 average in the first this season. Both starters bring long-term NRFI value with career sub-.240 BAA in opening frames.

Prop: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs – Ray and Nola are early-game stoppers, and both lineups average just 0.5 runs in the 1st.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

Nikola Vucevic is quietly balling. The veteran big is averaging 18.5 PPG this season—his highest since arriving in Chicago—while shooting a sizzling 53.0% from the field and over 40% from deep. He just dropped 20/11/8 on this same Miami team and remains a key scoring option even as the Bulls lean into their youth.

Prop: Nikola Vucevic Higher Than 17.5 Points – He’s efficient, heating up, and already cooked this exact matchup.

Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings

Daniel Gafford is making the most of limited minutes. Despite playing under 20 minutes a night, he’s averaging 12.3 PPG since his return and has cleared 8.5 in nearly every game. Sacramento’s interior D is soft, and their 24th-ranked defense over the last 15 makes them ripe for more Gafford buckets.

Prop: Daniel Gafford Higher Than 8.5 Points – Low minutes? No problem. Gafford’s scoring punch matches perfectly with this fast-paced, soft-defending Kings squad.

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